Choose results for rounds 4 and 5, and the odds update. Results you leave on ? are simulated from the ratings. Ties are broken by Buchholz Cut-1, then full Buchholz.
| Player | 1st place | Top 2 |
|---|
The small figures show the change from the actual position, with only played games counted.
This section shows what Villads needs from the games he doesn't play. It uses the results you set above, including his own games. Any of his games left on ? is simulated from the ratings.
Each cell shows Villads's title chance, then his top-2 chance, if that result happens. The best result for him in each game is highlighted, and the worst is marked in red.
| Game | White wins | Draw | Black wins | Impact |
|---|
From the starting position, if Villads wins both his games: he wins the title in about two thirds of cases and finishes top 2 in almost all of them. His main danger is Leia beating Ludvig, which cuts his title chance to about 23%. She would then be on 3½ and can't be his round 5 opponent, because they have already played. Eskil beating Noah is the second danger, because Eskil has the best tiebreak in the group.
Best case: Ludvig and Leia draw, Noah and Eskil draw, and Johannes and Asmund win. Then nobody can pass 4 points, and Villads wins any tie on tiebreak. Worst case: Leia, Eskil and Buster all win in round 4. Then Villads can't win the title even on 4/5, although he stays in the top 2.
| Pl | Player | Rtg | Rounds 1–5 | Pts | BH-1 | BH |
|---|
How the odds are calculated. Each game's odds come from the players' DSU ratings, with about 35 rating points added for White. The draw rate is highest between evenly matched players. Kunuk, Elliot, Aksel, Malthe and Jonatan have no FIDE rating, so their odds are less reliable.
Round 5 pairings are estimated with a simplified Swiss pairing: score groups, no rematches, and colour rules. The arbiter's pairing program may produce different pairings, especially in the middle of the table. If two players are equal on points, BH-1 and BH, the page ranks the higher-rated player first. The official placing for such a tie may differ.
Source: turnering.skak.dk. Rounds 1–3 are final results. Fetch actual results loads a copy of the official results that a GitHub Action refreshes about every 10 minutes. Played games are locked, and official round 5 pairings replace the estimate once they are published.